Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
